Heuristic Risk Assessment Using Cost Factors

The author describes an expert-system tool that can be used to analyze patterns of cost-driver ratings submitted for a Cocomo cost estimate. These results help users determine and rank associated sources of project risk. ood software risk management requires human judgment, and is often difficult to implement because of the scarcity of seasoned experts and the unique characteristics of individual projects. At project inception, for example, managers who are inexperienced or who lack sufficient time to do a thorough analysis may have a vague idea that a project is risky, but will not know exactly which risks to mitigate and how. They may overlook project planning discrepancies, fail to notice risks during cost estimation, or violate consistency constraints and cost model assumptions. Approaches for identifying risks are usually separate from cost estimation. We can improve our risk management practices by leveraging on existing knowledge and expertise during cost estimation activities through the use of cost factors to detect patterns of project risk. The automated, heuristic technique described here identifies risks in conjunction with cost estimation to help create mitigation plans based on the relative risk severities and provided advice. An automated tool identifies individual risks that an experienced software manager might recognize but often fails to take into account. It also helps calibrate and rank collections of risks, a process which many managers wouldn’t do otherwise.